Mar 13th, 2016 Weather Conditions

A high cloud shield has moved over the southwest, capping high temperatures for today, as this precursor of the coming weak system makes its way through the great basin.

Model runs have come into better agreement that most of the limited moisture available will stay N. of the I-70 corridor.

A good stream of moisture in the NE pacific is streaming onshore on a good 140 knot jet, into central California, but will be lifted into the N. Rockies before diving down the Front range.

A cold front will also sag southward tonight into early Monday, stalling out just at the San Juans. This do little to enhance precipitation as water ¬†vapor is lacking, but will likely create some blustery conditions for what meager snowfall occurs. This will also bring a minor dust event our way. Look for 2-4″ tops through Monday.

Cold air advection will feel more like winter for the coming couple of days. Temps rebound for Wednesday.

Another weak system is likely for thursday into friday.

Colorado snowpack has dropped below 98% for the first time this winter as Feb. snow was a no show and the January thaw came a month late. Snowpack is in the 50″-60″ range @ tree line, but pretty solid.

However, spring conditions have turned only the top layers isothermal, so deeper slab instabilities persist.




conus Overview Image

Also, oddly as I was viewing model runs and current observations on the NWS/NOAA site March 13 am 2016, I noticed that the two tightly wound Lows off the west coast of Washington and Alaska  were labelled as Highs.

Now I am only an educated amateur, but unless High pressure systems have suddenly decided to rotate counter clockwise and have pressures below 1,000 millibars, these are lows.

No wonder the models do not agree.

The data is only as good as the input.