My apologies for not updating sooner – one thing drives out another.
Anyway, here it is for now.
Last year held high hopes for El Nino which were born out in the early season. But by Feb things petered out. We moved to a ENSO neutral phase for spring and La Nina into summer. For this winter we were in an ENSO neutral trending towards La Nina. And still are. However sea surface temps in the East Pacific are on the rise.
As these oscillations occur in sea surface temps, they also affect atmospheric steering currents.This has been beneficial for early snow with a fall off in Feb.
But for now march dumps seem to be in store.
The San Juans are in for a week long snow event. However ENSO neutral conditions do not bode well for big dumps, rather consistent build and a finger heavy on the reset button.
The question is where the snow will fall. Crested Butte is experiencing an epic winter, especially early, when they had to close for a day due to too much snow. Silverton is doing quite well, as is T-ride though not as much as steering currents and moisture content in the flow, along with local orographics have a bigger impact than continental models can predict.
T-ride is getting hit harder than Silverton currently, which is unusual, but fine by me. In Ridgway it is about a half inch/ hour @ 7,000′ so T-ride is likely @ double.
snowpack is @ 160% in the San Juan and West elks, which bodes well for spring boating.
Much noise is being made about a two month release and run on the Dolores. Likely, but a grain of salt is needed.
While last year the powers that be were able to let it go for a bit over three weeks, after five years of 25 cfs, which allowed spooge, tamarisk, and other overgrowth to boge many camp sites.
Last year scoured out some of the detritus, but by no means all. If this year comes to fruition then the course might get close to a return to normal. Post dam normal.
And maybe new camp sites, since many of the old ones were spooged or overgrown.
Keep your fingers crossed. Looks good for now.