El Nino facts and guesses

A lot of noise has been made about this, this year. A lot was made last year, too. Though it did not come to fruition until late in the spring.
Now as we move into fall and winter the veracity of the forecast looks mo’ better.

There are four concepts to understanding weather.
1. The first, and most important is that the earth is a heat dissipation engine.
That means, more heat is absorbed from the sun, at the equator than the poles.
Physics dictate that heat goes to cold.
Therefore the entire planet is constantly trying to achieve equilibrium. i.e. heat to cold.It does this through ocean current circulation, and atmospheric circulation.

2.As 70% of the earth is covered in water, this is the biggest driver of the process
It absorbs most of the suns energy and dissipates it through ocean currents,salinity, and depth- along with upwelling.

3.Atmosphere. Since warm water evaporates faster than cold, air currents at the equator, or, over warm water pick up more moisture – water vapor – but changes happen in the differential of temperatures.
So it does not mean that cold air over warm water in the arctic will not pick up moisture. Or vice -a -versa. It is the differential in temperatures that make the force.

4. Land. Continents create ocean currents, and massive impediments to atmospheric circulation. Mountain ranges wring moisture out of the ocean, on dry land far from a sea.
Storing the moisture as snow, at altitude, till spring.
Air currents that do not get forced up by mountains, retain their moisture, depriving desert zones of it.Or mountain ranges wring the moisture out, leaving a rain shadow in the lee.

Ok.enough of that.
When ocean temps change so do currents.
When that happens, so does atmospheric circulation.
Then precipitation changes.
Snow Fall.
Runoff
River flow
Crop yields
Water supplies